This morning, my friend Matt Burgess forwarded the latest blog entry from the AdContrarian: the ridiculously well-opinioned Bob Hoffman of Hoffman/Lewis who regularly writes really interesting perspectives on the ad business (I should try to do that myself…). He argues quite persuasively that Facebook, with all it’s massive data and reach, is pursuing a misguided business strategy. As he puts it, “Facebook is the only media company in the universe that reaches a billion people on a regular basis but seems determined to sell cheesy $2 ads to dentists.” Ouch. He goes on to make a number of very astute observations regarding the nature of engagement and conversion, specifically that interactivity is the enemy of advertising since most people interact to avoid advertising, not play with it, unless they are looking for something. He makes a number of other really good points, all of which led to a healthy discussion in the agency.

Then, around 4;30 this afternoon, Rich Routman posted a blog on MediaPost lamenting that connected TV had yet to really find an audience. He figured it would take a long time before it becomes a dominant form of programming consumption. With less than half of connected TV owners using their internet connections, clearly there’s a lot of confusion. A lot will have to change, especially for us to use it for something other than the obvious Netflix streaming.

Or is there? Maybe Bob Hoffman is right. Maybe people will only use connected TV’s interactivity to avoid advertising (i.e.: streaming Netflix) making nothing else really worthwhile…

But either way, this future predictability is turning out to be quite the challenge.

By Dennis Ryan, CCO, Olson